In the coming year, we can hardly expect an easing of sanctions restrictions, but rather the opposite. Trade turnover with EU countries will continue to decline rapidly: last year alone it decreased by half compared to the previous one. This means that imports from China, and with it, new supply chains will develop. In this direction, the infrastructure problem needs to be solved: in particular, the capacity of the Trans-Siberian Railway and the BAM is not yet sufficient to increase freight traffic.
Transportation along the Northern Sea Route could grow to 500 million tons this year, including thanks to state support for the development of port terminals in Murmansk, Arkhangelsk and other cities. However, its weak point remains irregular flights and a short season due to ice cover. In parallel, within the framework of the North-South ITC project, they also plan to develop partnerships with the countries of the Caucasus and the Caspian region. The main problem here remains the absence of a large and reliable operator that would ensure stable and safe supplies of goods from India.
It is hardly worth expecting an increase in logistics prices in 2024, unless there is a dramatic fall in the ruble. Import costs jumped sharply at the beginning of 2023 due to a shortage of transport, but now the situation has stabilized, and importers have a choice of logistics solutions to suit different budgets. Sometimes an increase in imports even leads to the fact that owners accumulate a large number of empty containers and are ready to pay those who will rent them for delivery.
Materials provided by the site www.rzd-partner.ru.
